Why have the number and severity of wars dropped noticeably in the past century? In the past, one state could gain power until it was a risk to all the states near it, so all the states near it ganged up to keep it under control, repeat ad infinitum. But not for the past several decades:
This post will focus on what I do think is the US position in the international order, although the focus here is going to be somewhat less on the United States’ role within what I am going to call the ‘status quo coalition’ than it is on the coalition itself. Because the existence and breadth of this coalition is really unusual and thus remarkable; indeed it may be indicative of broader shifts in how interstate relationships work in an industrial/post-industrial world where institutions and cultural attitudes are beginning, slowly, to catch up to the new realities our technology has created.
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Globally we can see the failure of balancing. Despite the fact that the first real challenger to the US-led world order since 1989 has emerged in the form of the People’s Republic of China, the PRC has the same meager list of allies in 2023 that it had in 1953: North Korea. Russia likewise has a single European client state (Belarus); Russian friendship with Hungary has merely bought neutrality, not aid.
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Meanwhile, the United States’ list of allies is preposterous. Of the top 10 countries by nominal GDP – a decent enough measure of potential military capabilities – one is the United States and six more (3. Japan, 4. Germany, 6. UK, 7. France, 8. Italy and 9. Canada) are close allies of the United States. Of the next ten, five more (South Korea, Australia, Spain, the Netherlands, and Turkey) are formal US treaty allies, one is pointedly neutral (Switzerland) and three more (Mexico, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia) have either extensive economic ties with the United States, significant military ties with the United States or both.
Why have things changed so drastically? https://acoup.blog/2023/07/07/collections-the-status-quo-coalition/. 8,000 words and worth it; Steven Pinker wrote an entire book about how we got to where we are (The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined; see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Better_Angels_of_Our_Nature.)