Hopefully this post will be obsolete soon, but meanwhile here is a site with daily, detailed updates on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the protests in Iran. This includes political and social forces pushing the situations in various directions (did you know that Ayatollah Khamenei has a son, who might or might not become his successor? Or that militarist bloggers in Russia are demanding a broader, more devastating war?). For example:
Iran Crisis Update, November 23
Nov 23, 2022 – Press ISW
Protest activity and strikes will likely increase in the coming days. Protest coordinators and organizations have called for countrywide demonstrations from November 24-26 in solidarity with the protesters in Kurdistan Province. The regime has deployed the IRGC Ground Forces to cities and towns throughout Kurdistan Province to brutally crack down on protesters, as CTP previously reported. Twenty-nine neighborhood youth groups issued a joint statement on November 23 calling for the upcoming protests, demonstrating a degree of overt coordination that CTP has not previously observed.
(“CTP” is the “Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War.”)
Click on the article heading (eg Iran Crisis Update, November 23) for a detailed report. For the Russia reports, there is a lot of detailed, town-by-town information, but do check the end of each report for another summary.