Twenty-five years after 9/11, analysts can’t decide if the terrorist organization is all but defunct or more threatening than ever…
The group yearned to attack America again after 9/11 and had considered several schemes, but only on three occasions before Pensacola had it actually tried to execute an operation. All three plots had failed. ((Pensacola: “On December 6, 2019, in Pensacola, Florida, a 21-year-old Royal Saudi Air Force officer took out a legally acquired Glock pistol and killed three U.S. sailors at a naval air base.”))
A 2021 Brown University report put the cost of the War on Terror at more than $8 trillion. This unfathomable investment succeeded in removing al‑Qaeda from the little camps it once controlled in Afghanistan. But these havens have been replaced by large ones elsewhere, including in parts of the Horn of Africa, Yemen, and the Sahel, the arid region of West Africa just south of the Sahara. The al‑Qaeda franchises in those places are ruthless and rich. The East African branch fields a force that has been estimated at 10,000 men and pulls in about $100 million in revenue annually through taxation, smuggling, and outright theft.
On the other hand, these franchises are not attacking the US.
Bin Laden left 6,000 pages of notes about his actions and plans, and apparently believed that the 9/11 attacks would make the US completely withdraw from the Middle East:
For good or ill, American Middle East policy during this period was roughly the opposite of what bin Laden expected and intended. Rather than withdrawing, U.S. forces surged into the region. The United States has troops, and friends, in Syria, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates… Privately, bin Laden bemoaned his network’s impotence, lack of money, and inability to mount even small operations.
By now the rhythm of terrorism analysis should be familiar: For every piece of evidence that makes al‑Qaeda’s leaders look like evil geniuses, there is counterevidence that makes them look like hopeless bumblers.
It’s complicated, and even the experts hesitate to make predictions. 6,700 words: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/09/al-qaeda-25-years-post-9-11/687965/. If this is paywalled, send me a note.
Good news from Fix the News:
Türkiye votes in favour of amnesty to end its 40-year war. On Monday this week, Türkiye’s Parliament passed a law (with almost 80% support) offering conditional amnesty offering conditional pardons and legal protections to thousands of rank-and-file members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, in return for full disarmament. This builds on the ceasefire that saw the group lay down its arms last year. The insurgency, one of the world’s longest, has killed tens of thousands across Turkey, Iraq and Syria since 1984. Bloomberg / WSWS
And an image from my collection: