The lifetime risk of developing dementia after age 55 is estimated at 42 percent, according to a 2025 study of over 15,000 participants. The number of Americans developing dementia each year is estimated to increase from 514,000 in 2020 to about 1 million by 2060.
But there have been exciting strides in the diagnosis and treatments for Alzheimer’s, which accounts for 60 to 80 percent of dementia cases… About half of dementia cases may be preventable by addressing known risk factors, according to a 2024 Lancet Commission report.
We’ve been studying this for decades, and we’re finally getting some results:
An Alzheimer’s blood test: In May, the Food and Drug Administration approved the first blood test to detect signals of amyloid beta plaques and tau tangles — the biological hallmarks of Alzheimer’s disease — with over 90 percent accuracy.
Lifestyle interventions can lead to better cognition: Simultaneously targeting multiple areas — nutrition, exercise, cognitive training, health monitoring — improved cognitive measures of participants who were at risk of dementia.
Increasing focus on inflammation: Scientists are increasingly investigating the role played by inflammation in increasing dementia risk. “Alzheimer’s is a complex disease, and it’s likely not going to be a single approach.”
Vaccines may reduce dementia risk:One study published in Nature tracked more than 280,000 adults in Wales and found that the shingles vaccine cut the risk of developing dementia by 20 percent over a seven-year period.
A newly discovered link to lithium (in mice): Small amounts of lithium orotate could reverse the disease and restore brain function, which points to an exciting potential therapy.
Global air-pollution deaths fall as clean-air era begins. For the first time in centuries, global deaths from air pollution are falling; down by 21% between 2013 and 2023 thanks to a steep drop in household smoke as billions gained access to cleaner cooking. The last 18 months have seen the fastest tightening of air-quality laws in history, and several major economies – notably China, the US and the EU – are now decoupling pollution from growth. State of Global Air 2025
The biggest citizen rally since the Vietnam War. I’ve seen estimates from five million to eight million people, in every state in the US (and a few rallies in other countries too). Two lists of signs:
Hey, Mr. Tangerine Man, stay away from me You are creepy, and you are no good for anything Hey, Mr. Tangerine Man, stay away from me You’re a traitor to our nation ’cause you act like a king…
Russia’s fossil-fuelled death machine is in trouble. Both the United States and the United Kingdom have just blacklisted Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two largest oil companies, striking at the heart of war funding, while Taiwan will stop buying Russian naphtha after scrutiny of surging imports. Meanwhile, Russian coal miners posted massive losses in the first half of the year, with 23 companies shutting down and 53 at risk as prices slump and logistics bite, and in Europe, ministers have agreed to end Russian gas contracts by 2028, further cutting Moscow’s leverage.
Want to drill down into the specifics of how Russia’s being replaced? Take a look at Georgeta Carasiucenco and Peter Yeung’s excellent reporting of how Moldova turned the Russian gas crisis into a green energy revolution. When Russia’s invasion of Ukraine cut off supplies, Moldova’s villages raced to produce their own power…and now in Volintiri solar panels line schools and homes, and biomass has replaced gas, halving bills and boosting resilience. Nationally, renewables jumped from 3% to 25% of energy in just four years. Another win for green hero Vladimir Putin!
No image from my collection this week, the above should be plenty.
Important progress (still in the experimental stage!) for non-human organ replacement. Briefly, modifying the donor’s DNA makes it more acceptable to humans’ immune systems, so the organ is not rejected and the patient may not need lifelong immunosuppressants:
In the past year, doctors have performed history-making transplants, placing genetically modified pig kidneys and pig hearts into patients. Now, a group of doctors and scientists in China report they have done the same with a pig liver….
“The transplanted pig liver successfully secreted bile and produced liver-derived albumin, and we think that is a great achievement,” said Dr. Lin Wang… “It means the pig liver could survive together with the original liver in a human being—and would give additional support to an injured liver, maybe, in the future.”
Pigs are promising sources of organs, but the human immune system rejects transplanted pig tissue. Scientists have been getting around this by genetically modifying the pigs that provide the organs. The donor liver in this case came from a pig that had received six modifications to certain genes in order to remove major pig proteins that would have led to rejection; the editing technique also added genes that made the liver appear more human to immune cells.
People who are not up-to-date on the progress of renewable energy often say, “But what happens at night? There’s no sun for solar energy!” Batteries, baby, batteries.
Around the world, mega-batteries are unlocking mega-energy. California is ground zero. Since 2020, the state has tripled grid batteries to 13GW, with 8.6 GW more due by 2027; this spring and summer, batteries supplied over a quarter of evening peaks. Across the United States, 50% more utility scale batteries were added over the last year than the year before despite Trump. Analysts keep forecasting a slowdown; builders keep proving them wrong.
The boom is global: In 2022 there was only a single gigawatt-scale facility (defined as having a capacity of at least 1GWh, able to supply roughly 3 million UK households for an hour)inoperationworldwide. Today there are 42 such sites, and five times as many set to come online in the next couple of years. The result? Excess midday solar becomes clean, usable electricity after dark, displacing fossil gas and stabilising grids. FT
From May 2025, so this specific event is in the past:
The Trump administration is planning a June 14 military parade to celebrate the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army — and the president’s 79th birthday. When your sense of self-exaltation requires tanks, flyovers and up to $45 million for a birthday party, we’re no longer in the realm of cake and candles — we’re squarely in Criterion 1 of narcissistic personality disorder: “a grandiose sense of self-importance.”…
As a clinical psychologist who works with trauma and narcissistic abuse, I see echoes of this dynamic every day in my therapy office. The same patterns that destabilize families destabilize democracies: along with the magnetic vision of the grandiose narcissist come denial, attack, reversal of blame and emotional chaos…
Authoritarian leaders, like narcissistic family members, rely on well-worn tactics to manufacture a psychological state of volatile uncertainty — where outcomes aren’t just unknown, but constantly shifting and unpredictable… Whether consciously or not, narcissists hold power by keeping others in a state of psychological whiplash. And it works.
How do we deal with this?
One of my patients responds to her mother’s barrage of abusive texts — a stream of accusations, victim posturing, theatrical crises and financial demands — by reaching for her flashcards. Each card is labeled with a tactic she’s learned to spot: Deny, Attack, Play the Victim, Perform the Hero, Create Crisis. Instead of being wrung out like a towel, she names each tactic as it arises….
Instead of spending precious bandwidth on disbelief or outrage, the goal is to name the tactic, call out the harm, cultivate trusted support and let go of what is beyond your control. Persistent engagement in shock, bargaining or rumination often reflects the mind’s attempt to delay the grief associated with profound loss — private and emotional for my patients, social and institutional for our country.
When Dorothy pulled back the curtain and revealed the Wizard as an insecure man with a microphone and a smoke machine, she shattered the illusion that had kept an entire city captive.
Setting boundaries. Gray rocking. Building resilience. Staying calm, clear and connected.
US fire deaths fall two-thirds since 1980 Fires remain a danger in America’s cities, but thanks to decades of safety improvements per-capita civilian fire deaths have dropped by about two-thirds since 1980, total fires by half, and injuries by more than 50%. Smoke alarms, sprinklers, safer furnishings, and “fire-safe” cigarettes have each helped drive the decline. Slow, steady regulation – it’s not sexy, but it saves lives. Vox
This is probably the right post for the “Do not panic — Organize!” image that I’ve already used in (link), but here’s a new image from my collection:
Swimmers dive into Chicago river after 98 years. Some 300 swimmers looped through downtown Chicago in the first official river swim since 1927, a milestone made possible by decades of cleanup, starting with the creation of the Environmental Protection Agency and Clean Water Act in the 1970s. Volunteers and new infrastructure revived the waterway, luring back fish, beavers, and even ‘Chonkosaurus,’ a giant snapping turtle. The Guardian
Whatever you say about LLMs or AI today will shortly be obsolete:
“Just like Moore’s Law, we saw the doubling in performance every 18 months with AI. We have now started to see that doubling every six months or so,” said Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft at the company’s annual Ignite conference in 2024…. One (consequence) is that we are quickly approaching a world in which AI agents can autonomously produce scientific advancements. AI is already being used in fields like biotech… The other development is “agentic AI” that can execute increasingly complex workplace tasks without human intervention. This advancement, which experts say is probably a year away, will reinvent the workplace. Productivity will surge, the nature of white-collar work, and the number of white-collar workers, will change significantly.
Unfortunately, the current U.S. government has embarked on political and policy strategies that will inflict lasting self-harm. Its attacks on American universities will increasingly leave the nation with less scientific funding, broken public-private sector relationships, and much less ability to attract the most ambitious, talented, and highly skilled international students and immigrant labor.
In short, AI will have transformative effects on the domestic politics of every country where it is deployed at scale in the workforce. It will intensify the already contentious rivalry between Washington and Beijing—with direct implications for dozens of other countries. The need to think through the implications is urgent. This train is already in motion and beginning to gather speed.
If there is any field in which the rise of AI is already said to be rendering humans obsolete—in which the dawn of superintelligence is already upon us—it is coding. This makes the results of a recent study genuinely astonishing….
When researchers at MIT recently tracked the results of 300 publicly disclosed AI initiatives, they found that 95 percent of projects failed to deliver any boost to profits. A March report from McKinsey & Company found that 71 percent of companies reported using generative AI, and more than 80 percent of them reported that the technology had no “tangible impact” on earnings…
Every new technology experiences a “productivity J-curve”: At first, businesses struggle to deploy it, causing productivity to fall. Eventually, however, they learn to integrate it, and productivity soars. The canonical example is electricity, which became available in the 1880s but didn’t begin to generate big productivity gains for firms until Henry Ford reimagined factory production in the 1910s.
And good news from Fix the News (also in Time magazine: link, however this has not yet been peer reviewed):
Doctors say Huntington’s has been successfully treated for the first time, with gene therapy slowing decline by 75% in a 29-patient trial. The one-off treatment, delivered by 12–18 hours of brain surgery, reduced toxic protein levels and preserved neurons. Patients regained function, with some returning to work. Researchers call the results “spectacular,” offering decades of added quality life. BBC
The foundational document by Vernor Vinge from 1993.
Abstract
Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.
Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive? These questions are investigated. Some possible answers (and some further dangers) are presented.
What is The Singularity?
The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. I argue in this paper that we are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater than human intelligence. There are several means by which science may achieve this breakthrough (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur)…
Based largely on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater than human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (…let me more specific: I’ll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.)
There are several possible paths to superhuman intelligence (for example, man-computer interfaces which let a person immediately access everything on the Internet). All of them will lead to enormous changes in society. It’s difficult to tell if this will be unimaginably good or unimaginably bad, or perhaps somewhere in between.
I think Vinge’s estimate of 2030 is a little early… but computer power is still growing quickly. What happens when computers design faster computers? And then those computers design still faster computers?
Non-communicable disease mortality has declined in four of every five countries in the world. An analysis of WHO data shows that, between 2010 and 2019, the probability of dying from a non-communicable disease before the age of 80 fell in 152 countries for women and in 147 for men, covering roughly 72% of the global population. Most gains came from reduced deaths from cardiovascular disease and cancer, with Russia, Egypt, and China seeing marked improvements. The Lancet
Plus an image from my collection. This shows that correlation is not the same as causation (although… maybe people are throwing themselves into pools after seeing a Nicolas Cage movie):
Ebola outbreak in the DRC met with absolutely off-the-charts public health capacity. The DRC just confirmed a new outbreak of Ebola, BUTin under 24 hours, the virus was isolated, sequenced and the sequence data made publicly available. Genuinely incredible to see this kind of resolution and turnaround go from sci-fi to feasible over the course of the last decade. Wow.
And for some reason, this picture is just super funny to me:
Something light and easy this week: “In Somerville, Massachusetts, a community bike path has, in recent months, become a hotly contested political constituency.”
US prison population falls to its lowest in decades. America’s prison population has declined to its lowest level since 1992, with around 1.2 million people behind bars, down from a 2009 peak of 1.6 million. The shift reflects sentencing reforms, drug decriminalisation, diversion to treatment, and falling violent crime. The Atlantic
While nations rally to reduce their carbon emissions, and try to adapt at-risk places to hotter conditions, there is an elephant in the room: for large portions of the world, local conditions are becoming too extreme and there is no way to adapt. People will have to move to survive.
Over the next fifty years, hotter temperatures combined with more intense humidity are set to make large swathes of the globe lethal to live in. Fleeing the tropics, the coasts, and formerly arable lands, huge populations will need to seek new homes; you will be among them, or you will be receiving them. This migration has already begun…
Billions of people have gained clean water, sanitation and hygiene in the last nine years. That’s not a typo – that’s billions, with a B. An astonishing new data dump from the WHO and UNICEF showing that between 2015 and 2024 humanity recorded one of the fastest expansions of basic welfare of all time: 961 million people gained safe drinking water, 1.2 billion gained safe sanitation, and 1.5 billion gained access to basic hygiene services, while the number of unserved fell by nearly 900 million. Coverage has risen to 74%, 58% and 80% respectively, while open defecation has dropped by 429 million people. Together, these figures represent an historic advance in human health and dignity.
Laugh / learn links log 