Video: https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/boxhop.gif
Full article: https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2021/08/boston-dynamics-shares-an-incredible-behind-the-scenes-look-at-robot-building/
Category: Future
Good news on child mortality
Some things are getting better:
Two decades ago, nearly 10 million children did not live to see a 5th birthday.
By 2017, that number — about 1 in every 16 children — was nearly cut in half, even as the world’s population increased by more than a billion people.
…
The overwhelming majority of child deaths are preventable. Adequate nutrition, water, sanitation, vaccines and antibiotics can save many lives.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/09/17/upshot/child-mortality.html
Non-paywalled: https://archive.is/PWY6R
The next decade could be even worse
Normally I lean towards optimistic visions of the future, but this is thought-provoking:
In 2010, Peter Turchin predicted that the unrest would get serious around 2020, and that it wouldn’t let up until those social and political trends reversed. Havoc at the level of the late 1960s and early ’70s is the best-case scenario; all-out civil war is the worst.
The fundamental problems, he says, are a dark triad of social maladies: a bloated elite class, with too few elite jobs to go around; declining living standards among the general population; and a government that can’t cover its financial positions.
This article (approx 5,100 words) also includes a philosophical discussion of why historians tend to refuse a trend-based approach to history, and some ideas for preventing disasters, and many other interesting ideas…
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/can-history-predict-future/616993/
Good news on crime
Mostly good news: https://www.newsweek.com/rates-most-violent-crimes-2018-fell-while-rape-increased-according-annual-fbi-report-1462110.
According to an FBI press release published today, there were an estimated 1,206,836 violent crimes committed in the United States in 2018—368.9 crimes per 100,000 residents. This was down four percent from the same statistic in last year’s annual report for crimes committed in 2017, which said that there were 382.9 offenses per 100,000 people.
The report broke down violent crime into four broad distinctions: robbery, aggravated assault, “murder and nonnegligent manslaughter” and rape. Each of these, except rape, had decreased since 2018, according to the FBI. On the contrary, the report said that there were 7.7 reported rapes per 100,000 people, which corresponded to a 2.7 percent increase from 2017 and an 18.1 percent increase from 2014.
In particular, note the trends (my bolding):
The Pew Research Center stated that the rate of violent crime dropped 49 percent between 1993 and 2017, according to previous FBI reports. The report released today said the rate of robbery fell by 12 percent, murder decreased by 6.2 percent and aggravated assault dropped by 0.4 percent.
So why do people think that crime is increasing? Because they see it on the news all the time, without considering the purpose of the news.
(1) Journalists want to tell you what’s new — and small improvements are not big news, even if they add up to something remarkable after several years. Remember, it’s not called the olds.
(2) People are generally more interested in news that directly affects them, especially news about dangerous things. They’re not so interested in things that don’t directly affect them or aren’t a threat of some kind. And journalists give this to their readers.
(3) Journalists did cover this. They do every year. But only one day a year, when the new numbers are released. If you missed it, you missed the good news.
The size of our planet
Just how big is Earth? Let’s make some reasonable assumptions to get a rough estimate. Suppose that you could walk all the way around the world, approximately 25,000 miles, and that there are no oceans, mountains, etc. blocking your way.
A moderate walking speed is three miles per hour. If you walk eight hours a day, seven days a week, that’s 3 × 8 × 7 = 168 miles a week. Times 52 weeks per year is 8,736 miles a week. 25,000 / 8,736 is 2.8 years. (If you take off weekends, it’s about 4 years. If you skip sleeping and walk 24 hours a day, it’s just under one year.)
Our planet seems so huge. But only about three years to walk all the way around it? It’s not nearly as big as we think… in fact, it’s pretty small. That’s why it’s pretty easy for seven billion people to pollute it or damage it.
Just three years around at walking speed.
Wind vs coal, 2019
A remarkable thing happened in the US in April. For the first time ever, renewable electricity generation beat out coal-fired electricity generation on a national level, according to the Energy Information Agency (EIA). While renewable energy—including hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass—constituted 23 percent of the nation’s power supply, coal-fired electricity only contributed 20 percent of our power supply.
There are seasonal reasons for this happening in April. Wind power generation tends to be higher in spring and fall, hydroelectric generation usually peaks as winter snow melts, and lengthening days mean more solar power can be fed to the grid.
Good news (no really!)
Here are some articles from 2018. Things really are getting better in many ways. You don’t see it, because newspapers tend to print… er… news. Things that are different! Things that might kill you! The everyday, ordinary progress doesn’t get its fair share of coverage. So here’s some:
From Vox:
Between 2010 and 2016, the average human’s risk of dying in a famine was .006 of the risk in the 1960s (yes, six one-thousandths)… Estimated measles deaths fell from 550,000 in 2000 to 90,000 in 2016… life expectancy at birth has climbed by 10 years over the past four decades; it now stands at 72 years. The proportion of children who die before the age of five has halved since 1998…
https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/1/3/16843404/good-news-2017-global-health-development-war
Bill Gates Annual Letter 2018:
Does saving kids’ lives lead to overpopulation? All over the world, when death rates among children go down, so do birth rates. It happened in France in the late 1700s. It happened in Germany in the late 1800s. Argentina in the 1910s, Brazil in the 1960s, Bangladesh in the 1980s.
https://www.gatesnotes.com/2018-Annual-Letter?WT.mc_id=02_13_2018_02_AnnualLetter2018_BG-media
Why 2017 Was the Best Year in Human History:
Every day, the number of people around the world living in extreme poverty (less than about $2 a day) goes down by 217,000, according to calculations by Max Roser, an Oxford University economist who runs a website called Our World in Data. Every day, 325,000 more people gain access to electricity. And 300,000 more gain access to clean drinking water.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/opinion/sunday/2017-progress-illiteracy-poverty.html
Nootropics overview 2019
Chemicals to improve brain function. This article is a decent layperson’s overview. Short version: currently unregulated, poorly researched, and possible severe side effects… “But with greater scientific advancement bringing us newer and more profound ways to improve our consciousness, a future of superhumans hopped up on nootropics seems increasingly likely.”
https://www.newsweek.com/nootropics-smart-drugs-biohacking-1316682
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