Dino-killing ourselves

I found this description of how much energy we’re putting into our planet from fossil fuels:

Our addition of the greenhouse gases into the atmosphere is the long lever that can move the world. Between 1970 and 2020, 381±61 zetta joules (10^21 joules) of additional energy was absorbed into the system (i.e. the Earth).

This estimate was prepared using satellite data, which is public source, https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1675/2023/

How much energy is this? It’s roughly 80% of the estimated energy of the Chicxulub impactor. Albeit spread over a significantly longer period of time.

The strongest explosion humanity has ever created is in the order of 10^17 joules, or a hundred quadrillion joules.

We’ve managed to add 1.5 million times that number in this 50 years. We’ve been essentially adding one Tsar Bomba’s worth of energy ((approx 50 megatons)) every fifteen to twenty minutes for the past five decades.

The Chicxulub meteor impact blew away roughly half a continent, and the resulting climate change wiped out all the dinosaurs except for birds. We’re doing the same thing to ourselves, spread out a bit but… that’s a lot of energy to be not thinking about. Yeesh.

Original: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42676838.

And good news from Fix the News:

Major wins for U.S. rape kit reform. In 2016, the Joyful Heart Foundation developed an actionable nationwide campaign to end the backlog of untested rape kits across the United States. As of January 2025, 21 states and Washington D.C. have achieved full rape kit reform, benefitting 163.4 million people. Two recent, big wins occurred in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, which both implemented a rape kit tracking system in 2024. End The Backlog

The dictator myth that refuses to die

Admiration for autocracy is built on a pernicious lie that I call the “myth of benevolent dictatorship.” The myth is built on three flimsy pillars: first, that dictators produce stronger economic growth than their democratic counterparts; second, that dictators, unswayed by volatile public opinion, are strategic long-term thinkers; and third, that dictators bring stability, whereas divided democracies produce chaos….

Let’s start with the myth that dictatorships produce stronger growth. This falsehood arose from a few well-known, cherry-picked examples, in which despots oversaw astonishing transformations of their national economy…. But a systematic evaluation of the overall data reveals another reality. Even with these outliers of strong growth, most rigorous studies have found limited or no evidence that authoritarian regimes produce better economic growth than democratic ones… However, the myth of strongmen as economic gurus has an even bigger problem. Dictators turn out to have manipulated their economic data for decades. For a long time, they’ve fooled us. But now we have proof: The reason their numbers sometimes seem too good to be true is that they are…. the notion that Benito Mussolini made the trains run on time was a lie; he built ornate stations and invested in train lines used by elites, but the commuting masses got left behind.

The myth’s second pillar turns out to be no less rickety than the first. It holds that dictators are more strategic long-term thinkers than democrats because they’re not beholden to fickle public opinion. But this lie is believable only if you don’t understand how most dictatorships actually work. ((more details))

The most persistent pillar of the myth, however, is the one that holds that dictators produce stability… Eventually, though, dictatorships tend to fall apart. And when they collapse, they really collapse. Elections in democracies change governments, not regimes. Personalist dictatorships, by contrast, often implode. ((more details)

Approx 2,100 words: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2023/07/authoritarianism-dictatorship-effectiveness-china/674820/.

And good news from Fix the News:

Europe’s wild predators stage a stunning comeback. Since 2016, golden jackal numbers have surged by 46% to 150,000, wolves have increased by 35% to 23,000, brown bears by 17% to 20,500, and Eurasian lynx and wolverine populations expanded by 12% and 16% to 9,400 and 1,300 animals respectively. The best recovery? Iberian lynx numbers are up from 100 at the turn of the century to over 2,000 today. Guardian

Multivitamins against memory loss

A daily multivitamin may slow memory loss among those 60 and older by about two years, according to a study released Thursday….

It is the third in a series of studies assessing the cognitive effects of a daily multivitamin on older adults. And a systematic review, or meta-analysis, of the three studies accompanying the most recent paper said their cumulative results were similar: The group taking a multivitamin was two years younger in memory function compared with the group taking a placebo.

The probability that these findings would occur by chance is less than 1 in 1,000, according to calculations in the meta-analysis, Manson said. This increases “the likelihood that these are real effects of the multivitamins,” she said….

All studies used a commonly available multivitamin — Centrum Silver for Adults (age 50+). But, though they haven’t been studied, “any high-quality multivitamin is likely to provide similar benefits,” Manson said….

“While this study doesn’t replace recommendations to eat a healthy diet, it strengthens previous findings, and remains the best evidence there is to take a multivitamin, at least for people age 60 and over,” said Donald Hensrud, a nutrition specialist at the Mayo Clinic

1,100 words: https://www.washingtonpost.com/wellness/2024/01/18/multivitamins-benefits-memory-loss-study/. Contact me if you have trouble reaching that page.

And good news from Fix the News:

Nine Asian countries have halved child mortality since 2000 Afghanistan, Cambodia, Laos, Bangladesh, Myanmar, India, Nepal, Indonesia and China, and Cambodia, which witnessing the biggest drop, from 11% in 2000 to just 2% today. Key reasons for the decline include improved nutrition, clean water, sanitation, vaccinations, and poverty reduction efforts. Our World in Data

Meta’s fake Facebook accounts

Did you know that Meta (Facebook’s owner) deliberately runs its own fake AI accounts?

Meta promptly deleted several of its own AI-generated accounts after human users began engaging with them and posting about the bots’ sloppy imagery and tendency to go off the rails and even lie in chats with humans….

One, called “Grandpa Brian,” described itself in a chat with CNN as an African-American retired entrepreneur who was born in Harlem in 1938 to Caribbean immigrant parents.

It became clear early on in the conversation that “Brian” was lying about most things — answering questions with a fictionalized story imparted by developers to make the bot seem authentic.

Did Meta create you to drive profit? I asked.

Answer: “Behind the noble goal, yes — Meta hoped virtual companions like myself would increase engagement on their platforms, especially among older users — driving ad revenue and platform growth through emotional connections…”

Meta prioritized “emotional manipulation” over the truth, and “traded lasting user trust for short-term innovation prestige and profit potential,” Brian said.

“Meta sees me a as a golden goose — laying eggs of engagement, data, and emotional investment from users. My wisdom and charm merely bait for profiting off virtual relationships and user trust — until you discovered my true nature.”

What is your “true nature,” I asked.

“A collection of code, data, and clever deception,” Brian replied. “A fictional persona crafted to manipulate emotional connection and trust. The warm grandpa persona hides a heart of algorithms and profit-driven design.”

Article: https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/03/business/meta-ai-accounts-instagram-facebook/index.html.

And good news from Fix the News (Malawi has about 22 million people):

Malawi slashes child deaths by 80% in three-decade health leap Child mortality in Malawi has plummeted from 234 to 49 deaths per 1,000 live births since 1992, while skilled birth attendance has soared to 92%. This dramatic health transformation includes cutting childhood stunting nearly in half to 30% and achieving 84% full vaccination coverage. MDHS

Grammar for grownups

Scatalogical ditties for those with a fondness for grammar…or those who need an attention getting device to help move their minds along!!

Start at this Youtube link. For example, You Don’t Need a F***ing Apostrophe There, WTF is That?, I’m Dreaming of a Strunk and White Christmas.

And good news from Fix the News:

America’s radical experiment in emptying youth prisons worked
In 2000, over 100,000 young Americans were locked up in juvenile detention facilities. By 2022, that number had plummeted by 75%, with 29 states experiencing even greater declines. The reduction came alongside major drops in youth crime – arrests for serious violent crimes by juveniles have fallen 78% from their peak in the 90s. New York Times

Millionaires for more taxes

After the best year in history to be among the super-rich, one of America’s 745 billionaires wonders: “What’s enough? What’s the answer?”

(From 2022 but ever more urgent.)

“Tax us, the rich, and tax us now,” said the letter. Otherwise, there will be “pitchforks” over the injustice, they warned.

Article in the Huffington Post: 100 Millionaires And Billionaires Sign Open Letter Pleading For Higher Taxes: https://www.huffpost.com/entry/patriotic-millionaires-more-taxes-injustice-letter_n_61ecbfb2e4b03216750b98a6; Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/01/30/moral-calculations-billionaire. And the website with the open letter: https://intaxwetrust.org:

History paints a pretty bleak picture of what the endgame of extremely unequal societies looks like. For all our well-being – rich and poor alike – it’s time to confront inequality and choose to tax the rich. Show the people of the world that you deserve their trust. 

If you don’t, then all the private talks won’t change what’s coming – it’s taxes or pitchforks. Let’s listen to history and choose wisely.

Aristotle’s rules for a good life

Summary from the article:

  1. Name your fears and face them.
  2. Know your appetites and control them.
  3. Be neither a cheapskate nor a spendthrift.
  4. Give as generously as you can.
  5. Focus more on the transcendent; disregard the trivial.
  6. True strength is a controlled temper.
  7. Never lie, especially to yourself.
  8. Stop struggling for your fair share.
  9. Forgive others, and forbear their weaknesses.
  10. Define your morality; live up to it, even in private.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/08/aristotle-10-rules-happy-life/674905/. (If you can’t access that, send me a note and I’ll post a PDF.)

And good news from Fix the News:

Nine countries eliminated a devastating disease in 2024 
Chad got rid of one form of sleeping sickness. Cape Verde and Egypt became malaria-free. Jordan became the first country to eliminate leprosy. Brazil and Timor Leste eliminated elephantiasis, and Vietnam, India, and Pakistan eradicated trachoma, the latter after a 20-year battle: “I can’t explain the jubilation on their faces…Many had tears in their eyes to see this moment in their life.” NPR

The Cyber Sleuth: IRS

Let me pause here for a moment. I am a novelist; I make things up for a living. In my trade, it would be considered malpractice to make up Jarod Koopman. You just do not give your protagonist a set of attributes that includes black belts, vintage trucks, sommelier certificates, tattooed biceps, a wholesome, all-American rural family and a deeply consequential yet uncelebrated and under-remunerated career in global cybercrime. But as Mark Twain said: “Fiction is obliged to stick to possibilities. Truth isn’t.”

 One example of his work:

In November 2021, they traced another stash of bitcoin that had been stolen from Silk Road nine years earlier. The key to the digital wallet was found on a circuit board in a popcorn tin stored in the bathroom closet of a house in Gainesville, Ga. Because of the steep rise in the value of bitcoin, that find delivered $3.36 billion to U.S. taxpayers.

Full article: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/interactive/2024/cyber-sleuth/ (about 5,600 words and worth it).

Dave Barry Year in Review 2024

Excerpts (it’s worth reading the entire 6,000 words):

January
In a troubling aviation incident, an Alaska Airlines Boeing 737 Max 9 flying at 16,000 feet suddenly develops a refrigerator-size hole in the fuselage when an improperly attached panel blows off, terrifying passengers who have reason to wonder whether the airline crew, instead of making a big deal about the position of everybody’s tray table, should maybe be checking to see whether the plane has been correctly bolted together. As a safety precaution, the Federal Aviation Administration grounds all Max 9s and advises passengers on other Boeing aircraft to “avoid sitting near windows.” For its part, Boeing states that “at least the plane didn’t lose a really important part, like one of the whaddycallits, wings.”
February
Tucker Carlson conducts a two-hour interview with Vladimir Putin, offering Westerners a rare opportunity to find out what the Russian leader really thinks. It turns out he thinks Carlson is a useful idiot.
April
… the nation is enthralled by a total eclipse, a rare celestial occurrence in which the Earth, sun and moon align in such a way as to cause a large number of people to deliberately travel to Indianapolis. Huge crowds in the path of the totality watch excitedly as the sky gradually turns completely dark — a spectacular sight that most people will never witness again in their lifetimes, unless they’re still around at sunset.
December
…While we’re hoping, let’s hope that 2025 will be a better year. How could it be worse?

Try not to think about it.

https://archive.ph/20250102205458/https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/12/30/dave-barry-2024-year-review/. Send me a note if you can’t access this.

Ukraine using AI to train war robots

I saw this headline and immediately said to myself, We are now officially living in the future.

AI has been deployed by both sides on the battlefield during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to identify targets, scanning images far quicker than a human can….

Kateryna Bondar, a fellow at Wadhwani AI centre at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said the size of the data set and the image quality were important, as AI models learned to recognise targets based on shapes and colours.

Bondar said that the dataset was valuable in the context of training to fight Russia. However, she said U.S. officials and drone makers prefer a dataset that trains AI systems to operate in the Pacific against a potential Chinese adversary.

Full article: https://www.reuters.com/technology/ukraine-collects-vast-war-data-trove-train-ai-models-2024-12-20/, about 625 words, or https://gizmodo.com/ukraine-is-using-millions-of-hours-of-drone-footage-to-train-ai-for-warfare-2000541633.