Polling problems

This does not bode well for pre-election polls…

These are strange times for survey science. Traditional polling, which relies on responses from a randomly selected group that represents the entire population, remains the gold standard for gauging public opinion, said Stanford political scientist Jon Krosnick. But as it’s become harder to reach people on the phone, response rates have plummeted, and those surveys have grown exponentially more expensive to run. Meanwhile, cheaper, less-accurate online polls have proliferated.

“Unfortunately, the world is seeing much more of the nonscientific methods that are put forth as if they’re scientific,” said Krosnick.

…In one test of opt-in polling, 12 percent of US adults younger than 30 claimed that they were licensed to operate a nuclear submarine. The true figure, of course, is approximately 0 percent.

Full article (approx 2,800 words): https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/06/the-job-of-pollsters-has-become-much-harder-heres-how-theyre-responding/.

And more good news from Fix the News:

Medicare negotiates prescription drug prices in US for first time
The White House has secured new, lower Medicare prices for ten of the most costly drugs, potentially saving billions of dollars a year for taxpayers and beneficiaries. The reductions, which range from 38% for the blood cancer drug Imbruvica to 79% for the diabetes drug Januvia, take effect in 2026. ‘No one should be forced to choose between filling their prescriptions or filling their grocery carts.’ NPR

Kids these days

So I was tired of “Things are so terrible! Kids these days! The world is coming to an end!” when people suffered a stolen bike or a dog owner not cleaning up after their dog. I noticed these markings on my walk, took a couple pics, and tried to be funny on NextDoor:

Comments generally fell into three categories:

(a) They got the humor and added to it: “I see them doing it sometimes. They’re bold. They wear yellow safety vests and act like they’re some kind of construction crew!”

(b) Literal: “It’s construction markings.” Got it in one try.

Here’s the whole thread:

This was long enough. Good News next week.

Breakthroughs giving new hope in treating cancer

At the 2024 American Society of Clinical Oncology annual meeting, the world’s largest cancer conference, doctors, scientists and researchers shared new findings on ways to tackle the disease.
The event in Chicago, attended by about 44,000 health professionals, featured more than 200 sessions…

The world’s first personalised mRNA cancer vaccine for melanoma halves the risk of patients dying or the disease returning, according to trial results doctors described as “extremely impressive”… Patients who received the vaccine after having a stage 3 or 4 melanoma removed had a 49% lower risk of dying or the disease recurring after three years, data presented at the conference showed.

Delegates were briefed about two new tests aimed at providing an early warning sign for two of the world’s most common cancers.

The first, for prostate cancer, involves a DNA sample collected with a simple spit test. Trial results suggest it is more accurate than standard tests. It works by looking for genetic signals in the saliva that are linked to prostate cancer. The second, a blood test, predicts the risk of breast cancer returning three years before tumours show up on scans. The breakthrough could help more women beat the disease permanently.

60% of patients diagnosed with advanced forms of lung cancer who took lorlatinib were still alive five years later with no progression in their disease, data presented at the conference showed. The rate was 8% in patients treated with a standard drug, the trial found.

Doctors hailed the trial results as “off the chart”.

Full article (950 words with lots o links): https://www.theguardian.com/science/article/2024/jun/07/what-are-off-the-charts-breakthroughs-cancer-treatments.

And more good news from Fix the News:

Fewer children are dying from air pollution: The State of Global Air (SoGA) 2024 report has recorded a 53% drop in air pollution deaths between 2000 and 2021 for the world’s population of children under five. Deaths from household air pollution have decreased by 36%… 14.7 million fewer people go hungry in Brazil: A new UN report shows that severe food insecurity has fallen by a colossal 85% in just one year, from 8% in 2022 to 1.2% in 2023… China’s carbon dioxide emissions fell by 1% in the second quarter of 2024, the first quarterly fall since COVID-19, and the first ever structural decline due to growth in renewables. Electricity generation from wind and solar grew by 171 TWh in the first half of the year, and the increase in the number of EVs on China’s roads cut demand for transport fuels by approximately 4%.

Flight safety video

The Hobbit was filmed in New Zealand. Air New Zealand takes advantage… (4 min 38 seconds): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qOw44VFNk8Y. This one is based on the third movie, others include https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cBlRbrB_Gnc.

And more good news from FutureCrunch (now Fix the News):

The proportion of the world’s adults with a net worth of less than $10,000 has plunged from 75% in 2000 to less than 40% in 2023. The percentage of American workers earning under $15 an hour has dropped from 32% to 13% in just two years. The US Internal Revenue Service just collected a record $1 billion in past-due taxes from millionaires. Gavi’s Big Catch-Up begins, allocating 200 million vaccine doses to children missed during COVID-19. Saudi Arabia announces an unprecedented pension reform package, addressing critical issues such as retirement age and maternity leave. Johnson & Johnson agrees not to enforce its patent on critical TB medication in South Africa.

Why no Roman industrial revolution?

Why did the industrial revolution happen in Great Britain in the 1700s and not during the Roman Empire (or anywhere else) in, say, 200 AD? It turns out to be complicated, and modern historians took a while to fully unravel this.

The simple answer is, no one else had the multiple prerequisites. Great Britain was running out of wood for fuel, did have coal easily available up to a point, had practice (with all of Europe) producing precision metal cylinders (admittedly for cannon, but the knowledge was adaptable to steam engines), and had a use for the power from the steam engines. Two uses, in fact: pumping water out of the coal mines as they got deeper (and what luck! right there is the fuel for the engines!), and textile manufacturing on scales that had not previously existed. Neither the Romans nor any other economy had all these features in one place.

A long story (5,800 words) but fascinating to see how the modern world was created: https://acoup.blog/2022/08/26/collections-why-no-roman-industrial-revolution/.

And more good news from FutureCrunch (now Fix the News):

22 years after The Wire, Baltimore reports 36% decline in homicides
According to the Baltimore Police Department, these numbers for the first half of 2024 are on top of a 20% reduction in homicides in 2023. The new figures also show that non-fatal shootings declined by approximately 30% in H1 2024. City leaders have attributed this to community outreach and long-term efforts to regain public trust as well as ‘the collective efforts of [the] entire public safety apparatus.’ Hoodline

From the internet 2015 (part 1)

More stuff I saved because it was funny or useful or otherwise worth saving:

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

(Still Drinking, http://www.stilldrinking.org/god-s-not-dead-a-film-student-s-review)

“Don’t try to be clever. Just tell the truth.” I am absolutely behind this extremely reusable piece of advice that works in any context outside of politics, job interviews, and first dates.

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

Article in ArsTechnica: New neural implant reads a person’s intentions to control robotic arm

Erik Sorto, 34, has been paralysed from the neck down for the past 13 years. However, thanks to a ground-breaking clinical trial, he has been able to smoothly drink a bottle of beer using a robotic arm controlled with a brain implant.

To which one commenter replied:

I admire this man’s priorities.

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

A Grand Master was talking to another GM at the chess club.

“I played an anonymous opponent online last night. He was good, I think it was God.”

The other GM replied, “God? Really? You think God plays anonymous chess online?”

“Yes, He was really good.”

“Maybe it was Carlsen, he’s played anonymously before.”

“No, He wasn’t that good.”

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

QA Engineer walks into a bar. Orders a beer. Orders 0 beers. Orders 999999999 beers. Orders a lizard. Orders -1 beers. Orders a sfdeljknesv.

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

It’s gibberish all the way down.

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

Article title in The Register, 9/2015 (this headline made me get a subscription):

MAMMOTH MAMMOTH fossil find with BONUS BISON BONE BONANZA

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

Karen Ravn (via Ad Astra):

Only as high as I reach can I grow,
only as far as I seek can I go.
Only as deep as I look can I see,
only as much as I dream can I be.

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

I just got a message from USA Today that Xerox split into two companies. I bet they both look exactly alike…

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

Infinity4011:

I have been trying to find a Toyota dealership that will even take a custom order for a new Tacoma. They all try to sell me last year’s model with similar options, or this year’s new model with different options but the same color. I don’t want a red crew cab automatic with a short bed. I want a red access cab with a long bed and a manual transmission, and a specific set of options. I don’t want a 2015 model, even if it’s close. I want a NEW model Tacoma, but the dealerships where I live just look at me like I’m trying to buy a car and pay with bags of Ebola virus or something. They want absolutely nothing to do with someone who wants to custom order a vehicle.

(Yes, this was pre-COVID.)

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

Personally, I’ve been hearing all my life about the Serious Philosophical Issues posed by life extension, and my attitude has always been that I’m willing to grapple with those issues for as many centuries as it takes. – Patrick Hayden.

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

I’m not a lawyer, but my lawyer is.

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

My dad was a pastor in northern Wisconsin. As such, he couldn’t tell Finnish jokes because that area has a strong Finnish population. To make up for it, he would tell jokes about an extinct civilization – the Hittites. That way no one could be offended.

“So these two Hittites, Eino and Toivo…”

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

General Peter Pace, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, once told me, “If you have integrity, nothing else matters. If you don’t have integrity, nothing else matters.”

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

Give a man a fish and he’ll come back tomorrow for another one. Teach a man to fish and he’ll start looking for someone who will just give him a fish instead…

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

That’s the nice thing about kleptomania: you can always take something for it.

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

My favorite Latin words to live by: Carpe Deim. 10 cents a fish.

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

Veni, vidi, visa.

I came, I saw, I charged it.

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

Not my circus, not my monkey.

❖❖❖❖❖❖❖❖

And more good news from FutureCrunch (now Fix the News):

Good news for the planet

Something approaching a miracle has been taking place in California this spring. Beginning in early March, for some portion of almost every day, a combination of solar, wind, geothermal, and hydropower has been producing more than a hundred per cent of the state’s demand for electricity. . . . It’s taken years of construction—and solid political leadership in Sacramento—to slowly build this wave, but all of a sudden it’s cresting into view. California has the fifth-largest economy in the world and, in the course of a few months, the state has proved that it’s possible to run a thriving modern economy on clean energy.
Bill McKibben in The New Yorker

Potential Parkinson’s treatment

Parkinson’s Disease killed my father. It affects around six million people globally, and there is currently no cure.

A small new trial published in the journal Nature Medicine describes what would be two firsts for Parkinson’s disease, if they pan out: a diagnostic test and a potential immune-based treatment that works similarly to a vaccine. The research is still early, but researchers are excited by the prospect of advances for a disease that lacks good diagnostics and treatments….

The Florida-based biotech company Vaxxinity developed a vaccine, or what it calls an active immune medicine, to train the immune system to attack only abnormal versions of the protein—which are improperly folded—and not the regular forms. This would essentially help people’s bodies treat themselves….

The new diagnostic test for Parkinson’s, which was initially developed by researchers at the University of Texas and later Amprion, uses samples of cerebrospinal fluid to measure a person’s levels of abnormal alpha synuclein… Alpha synuclein has been tricky to measure in the body for several reasons, says Frasier. While everyone has the protein, abnormal forms of it occur in relatively small amounts, so they’re harder to detect via imaging. This type of alpha synuclein also tends to clump inside cells rather than outside of them, making it even harder to see….

The Vaxxinity vaccine trial included 20 people with Parkinson’s. It was just designed to test the safety of the approach, so the study only provided hints about the treatment’s effectiveness. Everyone received three shots over nearly a year; some contained the treatment at different doses, and some contained a placebo. Overall, people receiving the vaccine generated more antibodies against the abnormal alpha synuclein protein than those vaccinated with placebo…. Antibodies started to ramp up about four months after the vaccinations began.

1,075 words: https://time.com/6883054/parkinsons-test-vaccine-study-vaxxinity/.

And more good news from FutureCrunch (now Fix the News):

More good news you didn’t hear about

The number of active mobile money accounts globally grew from 13 million in 2010 to more than 640 million in 2023. Liberia’s new war crimes court could bring long-overdue justice to civil war victims. Mexico’s president-elect upgrades the national science council and puts a woman at its helm. The Mekong Malaria Elimination programme reports an astonishing 43% decrease in malaria cases in just one year. US traffic deaths are declining, even as people drive more. In Cambodia, the government’s Nutrition Project is enhancing access to quality health and nutrition services, and a new Water Security Project will improve supply and reliability for over 113,000 people. A UNICEF report reveals a 13% drop in children facing severe food poverty in Nigeria.

Financial records: keep or toss?

Ten things to keep forever: Birth certificates and adoption papers, death certificates, marriage and divorce records, Social Security cards, military service records including discharge documents, loan payoff statements, year-end pay stubs, retirement or pension records, estate documents, funeral programs. Details on some of these in the article.

It depends: Loan documents, vehicle title, receipts for big-ticket items, home improvement purchase orders / receipts / canceled checks, investment statements.

3-7 years: tax records, medical bills (if tax related).

One year: credit card statements.

Less than one year: ATM or retail receipts.

Full story: https://wapo.st/3KOCAL1. 1,060 words.

And more good news from FutureCrunch (now Fix the News):

Animal conservation in the Caribbean is paying off
The Caribbean islands have suffered some of the highest extinction rates in modern history. But over the past three decades, conservationists have worked tirelessly to restore 30 islands and have saved 12 species, including the Antiguan racer, one of the world’s rarest snakes, the White Cay iguana, and the Sombrero ground lizard. BBC

ChatGPT and calendars

I’m working on an algorithm to determine the dates of holidays, for example, Labor Day is the 1st Monday in September (thus September 2 for 2024… anywhere from the 1st through the 7th depending on the year). Just a little hack that I felt like doing. Well, it’s slightly complex, so just for fun I decided to ask ChatGPT how to do it.

ChatGPT did an excellent job… but the (my bolding) warning at the end was a surprise:

Me: How do I calculate which day of the month is, for example, the third Thursday?

ChatGPT:

To calculate which day of the month is, for example, the third Thursday, you can follow these steps:

1. Determine which day of the week the first day of the month falls on.

2. Find the day of the week that corresponds to the desired weekday (e.g., Thursday).

3. Add the appropriate number of days to the first occurrence of that weekday in the month to find the desired occurrence (e.g., third Thursday).

Here’s a more detailed breakdown:

1. Find the day of the week for the first day of the month using any method (e.g., a calendar, programming libraries like Python’s `datetime` module).

2. Determine the difference in days between the desired weekday and the day of the week of the first day of the month.

3. Calculate how many days you need to add to the first occurrence of the desired weekday to reach the desired occurrence (e.g., third Thursday).

For example, if the first day of the month is a Monday and you’re looking for the third Thursday, you’d add 4 days (Thursday minus Monday) to the date of the first Monday to find the date of the first Thursday. Then, you’d add (3 – 1) * 7 days to find the date of the third Thursday.

Keep in mind that this calculation might involve considerations for leap years and edge cases where the month doesn’t have the desired occurrence of the weekday (e.g., if there are only two Thursdays in the month).

And more good news from FutureCrunch (now Fix the News):

Humanity sees significant decline in tetanus-related fatalities

Tetanus, a bacterial infection that causes paralysis and can be fatal, claimed over 250,000 lives annually in the early 1990s. By 2019, the number of deaths had plummeted to fewer than 35,000 per year—largely thanks to widespread administration of the combined diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis vaccines. OWD

The myths holding back police reform

From Neil Gross, professor of sociology at Colby College and a senior fellow at the Niskanen Center in Washington, DC:

Myth #1: The police can’t prevent crime

Although I can understand why some people might feel this way—if you live in a neighborhood with persistent crime and what seems like an oppressive police presence, say—research shows that the opposite is true. All else being equal, the larger the number of police officers in an area, the less crime there tends to be, at least for many kinds of crime…

Myth #2: Police reform compromises public safety

for the US as a whole, property crime has been sloping downward more or less uninterrupted since the early 1990s, as measured by official reports to police as well as anonymous victimization surveys.

And now, preliminary data from the largest US cities show a major drop in homicides for the first half of 2023. (Not for all cities. Violent crime in Washington, DC, for example, including homicide, is up this year.)…

Myth #3: Because of policing’s racist origins, there is nothing we can do to improve it

Policing, for its part, has transformed over the decades, as any historian of the subject can attest, and this is also true along the dimension of race. While stubborn racial disparities remain in use of force, arrest rates for petty offenses, routine traffic stops, internal hiring and promotion, and other aspects of police operations—disparities every department should work to minimize—and while horrific evidence of racial animus continues to surface with disturbing frequency, there can be no serious question that policing in 2023 looks very different than it did in, say, Birmingham, Alabama in 1963, when “Bull” Connor, the notoriously racist public safety commissioner, directed his officers and their dogs to viciously attack civil rights protesters because of his opposition to integration.

Very detailed and interesting, with history and real-life examples. 3,600 words: https://time.com/6316258/myths-police-reform/.

And more good news from FutureCrunch (now Fix the News) (bolding is mine):

Europe’s crackdown on air pollution cuts heart disease deaths
Europe recorded the largest annual decline in PM2.5—the air pollution most closely linked to harmful health effects—of any region of the world between 2010 and 2019. As a result, deaths in the region from heart disease attributed to pollution fell by 19.2% and from strokes by 25.3%. This amounts to 88,880 fewer heart disease deaths and 34,317 fewer stroke deaths. FT